Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Oklahoma City Thunder bounced back in a major way in Game 2 of the NBA Finals, holding on to a double-digit lead to even their series with the Indiana Pacers before the series shifts to Indiana.
Game 3 will take place at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indiana on Wednesday, and oddsmakers have set the Thunder as road favorites. In fact, oddsmakers have boosted OKC across the board, moving it from -300 to -525 to win the series and setting “Thunder in 5” as the most likely outcome at +200.
Can the Pacers flip both of those projections on their head by winning Game 3?
Indiana has struggled in Game 3s in these playoffs, going 0-3, including two losses at home (to Cleveland and New York). It’s pretty shocking since the Pacers’ only other losses were Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals against the Knicks and Game 2 of the Finals on Sunday night.
Tyrese Haliburton, who didn’t do much offensively until the fourth quarter in Game 2, needs to be more aggressive on offense if the Pacers are going to pull off the upset in this series.
Here’s a breakdown of my favorite bets for Game 3 on June 11.
NBA Best Bets Record to Date2024-25 season record: 277-283-5 (-8.55 units)OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1287-1227-26 (+29.54 units)
NBA Best Bets Today
Oklahoma City Thunder -5.5 (-108) vs. Indiana Pacers – 0.5 unitTyrese Haliburton UNDER 8.5 Assists (-145) – 0.5 unitIsaiah Hartenstein OVER 7.5 Rebounds (+100) – 0.5 unitOklahoma City Thunder -5.5 (-108) vs. Indiana Pacers – 0.5 unit
Will the Pacers’ Game 3 struggles carry over into the NBA Finals?
While Indiana won Game 1 of this series, the Pacers have fallen behind big in both games, needing a massive second-half run to even pull out Game 1 in the final seconds.
The Thunder shot the ball much better in Game 2, led by an 11-for-21 shooting game from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. In addition to that, OKC had a much more balanced attack in Game 2, as Aaron Wiggins, Alex Caruso, Chet Holmgren, and Jalen Williams all scored over 15 points.
The Pacers’ margin for error is extremely thin against this Thunder team, and it’s worth noting that Haliburton has not played at a high enough level overall in this series. Yes, he hit a game-winning shot in Game 1, but he had just two made baskets entering the fourth quarter in Game 2.
The Thunder’s ability to get the ball out of Haliburton’s hands has slowed down the Pacers’ attack a bit, which makes them much easier to defend.
OKC has responded to every challenge so far in the playoffs, and it has an impressive 23-19-2 against the spread record as a road favorite this season. The Pacers, meanwhile, are just 5-6-1 ATS as home underdogs.
I’m buying the Thunder to take a 2-1 series lead on Wednesday night.
Tyrese Haliburton UNDER 8.5 Assists (-145) – 0.5 unit
So far in this series, Haliburton has just six assists in each of the two games, falling way short of his postseason average of 9.3 assists per game.
The star guard has seen his potential assists fall from 15.4 per game to 14.0 per game in this series, and he’s been playing off the ball quite a bit because of the Thunder scheming to keep him out of actions.
This postseason, OKC is allowing just 21.8 assists per game (the sixth-best mark in the playoffs), and the Thunder are holding opponents to an NBA-best 42.9 percent from the field in the playoffs.
As a result, the Pacers have struggled to convert off of many of Haliburton’s passes, registering just 12 made buckets on 28 assist chances.
I think this number is a little high – even at home – in Game 3.
Isaiah Hartenstein OVER 7.5 Rebounds (+100) – 0.5 unit
The Thunder decided to bench Isaiah Hartenstein in this series, but it hasn’t stopped the center from having a major impact in a bench role.
Hartenstein is averaging 8.5 rebounds per game in this series, clearing 7.5 boards in both contests. He played more in Game 2 than he did in Game 1, registering eight rebounds (three offensive) in just over 22 minutes.
Despite the limited minutes, Hartenstein is still averaging 13.0 rebound chances per game in this series. The Pacers are grabbing just 48.1 percent of available boards this postseason, so I expect Hartenstein to continue to dominate the glass in his playing time in Game 3.